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At the request of political science colleagues, I have updated an article I wrote for the ABC's 2004 federal election site that dealt with the history of preferential voting in Australia. In the article I tabulated how preferences have changed results at elections since 1949.

As politicians and political scientists in the UK scramble for information on the 'alternative vote', it turns out my article is the only attempt in decades to analyse the operation of the alternative vote at Australian elections. So I have updated the article with data from the 2004 and 2007 elections.

There is a remarkable conclusion to the artcle. In the high period of the DLP between 1955 and 1972, the Coalition won a total of 34 seats at seven elections after trailing Labor on the first preference vote. In the same period, Labor came from behind to win in just one seat.

Since 1980, the operation of preferential voting has had the reverse political impact. At the 11 elections since 1980, the Coalition has won only five seats where the combined Coalition vote trailed Labor on the first preference count. In the same period, Labor has won a total of 61 seats having trailed the combined Coalition vote on first prefernces.

Indeed, Labor won 11 seats from behind the combined Coalition vote at the 2007 election, nine after finishing second on the first preference vote. The Labor Party would not have won a majority of seats at the 2007 election had the election been decided on first past the post rules.

Given this record, it is a wonder that hard-heads in the Coalition haven't realised they are being beaten by compulsory preferential voting, and perhaps optional preferential voting might be worth a try.

Preferential Voting in Australia

Australia has a long history of electoral experimentation. Australia led the world in abandoning electoral franchises based on property ownership by extending the right to vote to all adult males. Australia also led the world in granting the vote to women, and in the introduction of the secret ballot, a reform that when introduced in the United States was often referred to as the 'Australian ballot'.

One innovation that has remained more or less unique to Australia has been preferential voting. (It is better known outside of Australia as the 'transferable vote', or in its single-member form, as the 'alternative vote'.) In almost all other countries, you get the right to cast a single vote for your party or candidate of choice. This single vote may be for a candidate in a single member electorate, as occurs in the United Kingdom, Canada or the United States, or it may be for parties elected by proportional representation as in European countries. (Some countries, like Germany, New Zealand and Scotland, use variants on proportional representation where you get two votes.) All these systems work on the basis that if your choice of candidate or party does not get elected, your vote does not get a second chance to be counted.

Not so in Australia. The essence of preferential voting is that voters number candidates on the ballot paper in a rank order of choice. You put the number 1 next to your first choice candidate, 2 next to your second choice, and so on. If your first choice candidate is not elected and no candidate receives half of the vote, your vote may be re-examined for its next preference. The point of the system is to elect the most preferred candidate, to choose the candidate that can build an absolute majority of support in the electorate rather than the simple majority required under first past the post voting.

Other countries have adopted the idea of requiring absolute majorities for elections, but not using Australia's preferential system. Many countries, including France and Indonesia, use run-off election to elect the President. If no candidate wins 50% of the vote in the first round, a run-off election is held later between the two leading candidates. In recent years, a form or preferential voting called contingent voting has been used in Britain to elect Mayors. Voters are given two votes, a first preference for the preferred candidate, and a second preference to be counted if no candidate receives a majority of the vote. The only contingent votes counted are for the two candidate who have the highest first vote counts.

So preferential voting is like a run-off election, except the run-off is held with the same ballot paper and on the same day. Under special circumstances, it is even possible for candidates who don't finish first or second to come through and win after the distribution of preferences.

A Brief History of Parties and Preferences

Australian political history did not begin with Federation. From the 1850s in the eastern states, and from 1890 in Western Australia, each of the then colonies had vigorous local politics and parliaments. However, nothing resembling modern political parties existed until the 1890s, the politics of the day being more personality based, less parties than factions organised to support prominent political identities. The first modern political party was the Labor Party. It was born from the trade union movement following the defeat of the unions in a series of strikes in the early 1890s, a period when the Australian economy was suffering a severe recession.

For most of the first decade after Federation in 1901, the Australian Parliament consisted of three parties, the Labor Party, and two blocks formed on opposing sides on the great economic debate of the day, Free Trade versus Protection. In the first decade, all three parties took turns in office, putting into place the legislation that set up the Commonwealth of Australia. By 1909, the fiscal question had been settled in favour of protection, and the two competing blocks opposed to Labor merged to form the first Liberal Party. The 1910, 1913 and 1914 elections were true two-party contests between the Labor and Liberal Parties.

During the First World War, the governing Labor Party split over conscription for military service. Prime Minister Billy Hughes, some of his ministry and a number of backbenchers left the Labor Party and eventually merged with the opposition to form a new Nationalist Party, with Hughes continuing as Prime Minister. However, Hughes's past links with 'socialism' was always distrusted on the conservative side of politics, especially in rural Australia. This led to the emergence of a new political force in rural districts that eventually became the Country Party.

From Federation to the First World War, Australia used the 'first past the post' voting system inherited from the United Kingdom. There had been experiments with other voting systems in the states, the contingent ballot used in Queensland, Hare-Clark (STV) proportional representation in Tasmania and run-off elections in NSW. However, first past the post still ruled the roost, which created problems for the conservative side of politics with the emergence of the Country Party.

In October 1918, a by-election was held in the then rural Western Australian seat of Swan. Labor's 21 year-old candidate polled 34.4% of the vote and won, ahead of the Nationalist candidate on 29.6% and the Country Party candidate on 30.4%. Something needed to be done to prevent the two conservative parties splitting the vote and delivering seats to Labor. The solution was preferential voting.

The Corangamite by-election two months later on 14 December 1918 was the first Federal poll conducted under the new system. In a field of five, Labor again led on the primary votes, future Labor Prime Minister James Scullin polling 42.5% of the vote. But a tight exchange of preferences between four competing conservative candidates saw Scullin's vote rise to only 43.7% after preferences. The Victorian Farmers Union candidate coming from 26.4% on primaries to win with 56.3% after preferences.

In both 1919 and 1922, preferential voting allowed Nationalist and Country Party candidates to compete against each other without delivering seats to Labor. After the 1922 election, the Country Party gained the balance of power in Parliament. Its price for Coalition with the Nationalists was the replacement of Hughes as Prime Minister by Stanley Bruce. In the first Coalition cabinet, Country Party Leader Earl Page served as Deputy Prime Minister. For more that eight decades since, the two conservative parties have continued in Coalition.

The Nationalist Party later became the United Australia Party when it gained a few more Labor refugees during the depression, and then the Liberal Party in 1944. The Country Party was re-named the National Party in the 1970s. Despite these changes, the Coalition between two parties, one rural and one largely urban, has continued for more than eight decades with only brief interruptions. Such a long lasting Coalition would not have been possible under first part the post voting. Preferential voting allowed the two Coalition parties to compete against each other at the local level, while presenting a united front at the national level in opposition to Labor. Under first past the post voting, the two parties would have had to avoid competing against each other to prevent Labor winning seats.

The Country Party even found it a useful method to avoid internal disputes. While rarely used in recent years, the party constitution allows the multiple endorsement of candidates. It was once common for the Country Party to nominate candidates from different parts of an electorate, the voters left to choose between the offered alternatives.

Until the 1950s, preferential voting essentially worked in this way, allowing competing conservative candidates to contest election, the electoral system working to prevent these contests resulting in Labor victories. But in the period since the Second World War, Australian politics has changed with the emergence of political players other than the three traditional parties.

Past Preference Results

The following table summarises the number of seats where preferences were counted at all elections since 1949. The final column also shows the total number of seats where preference changed the result from what would have occurred under first-past-the-post voting.

Preferences Distributed at Past Elections

				Number of Seats where
Election	Electorates	Average Candidates per Electorate	Minor Party Vote %	Preferences Required	Leading Candidate defeated
1949	123	n.a.	3.9	22	9
1951	123	n.a.	2.1	6	2
1954	123	n.a.	2.9	6	2
1955	124	n.a.	7.7	17	1
1958	124	n.a.	10.7	31	7
1961	124	n.a.	10.0	37	7
1963	124	n.a.	8.5	24	9
1966	124	n.a.	10.1	31	5
1969	125	n.a.	9.6	40	12
1972	125	n.a.	9.0	49	14
1974	127	n.a.	5.0	33	10
1975	127	n.a.	4.1	24	7
1977	124	4.1	12.3	46	4
1980	125	4.0	8.6	39	6
1983	125	4.2	6.9	31	2
1984	148	4.2	7.5	44	13
1987	148	4.1	8.1	54	4
1990	148	5.3	17.2	91	11
1993	147	6.4	10.8	63	12
1996	148	6.1	14.0	65	7
1998	148	7.5	20.4	98	7
2001	150	6.9	19.2	87	6
2004	150	7.3	15.7	61	8
2007	150	7.0	14.5	75	9

As the above table shows, the number of electorates where preferences are required to be counted has increased substantially in the last two decades. In large part this has been due to the the rising vote for minor parties and the increasing number of candidates. The presence of party names on ballot papers since 1984 has also given voters more clues on who the minor parties represent. As anyone who has scrutineered will tell you, some voters give preferences to every other candidate on the ballot paper before finally making the choice between major party candidates.

The above table obscures some important political changes to the impact of preferences since 1949. If you exclude three cornered contests where the Liberal and National Parties both nominate candidates against Labor, there has been a dramatic shift in the political impact of preferential voting.

The following table sets out in full the number of seats at each election where preferences changed the outcome in an electorate.

Party Victories Based on Preferences

	Seats Won on Preferences			Win from Trailing Primary Vote			Combining Coalition
Election	Coalition	Labor	Others	Coalition	Labor	Others	Coalition	Labor
1949	14	8	..	8	1	..	..	..
1951	3	3	..	1	1	..	1	1
1954	6	..	..	1	..	..	..	..
1955	7	10	..	1	..	..	1	..
1958	23	8	..	8	..	..	5	..
1961	27	10	..	6	1	..	4	1
1963	21	3	..	9	..	..	6	..
1966	24	6	1	4	..	1	3	..
1969	35	5	..	12	..	..	7	..
1972	37	12	..	14	..	..	8	..
1974	24	8	..	9	1	..	1	2
1975	18	6	..	7	..	..	..	..
1977	35	11	..	4	..	..	..	..
1980	27	12	..	3	3	..	1	3
1983	14	17	..	2	..	..	1	..
1984	28	16	..	13	..	..	..	2
1987	22	32	..	4	..	..	..	6
1990	33	57	1	3	7	1	..	10
1993	29	32	2	6	4	2	1	9
1996	38	23	4	4	2	1	..	3
1998	62	35	1	3	4	..	2	4
2001	41	44	2	2	4	..	..	4
2004	24	36	1	..	8	..	..	9
2007	32	42	1	..	9	..	..	11

The first three columns set out the total number of seats won by each party on preferences. The next three compare the result after preferences with the outcome that would have occurred under first past the post voting. The final two columns remove three-cornered contests by comparing the Labor vote with the combined vote for Liberal and National Party candidates. As these final two columns show, there has been a substantial shift in the last two decades, with preferential voting increasingly favouring Labor where previously it assisted the Coalition.

Analysing the above table makes more sense when you break the election down into periods based on the main parties contesting election.

1949-1954

Politics in this period was essentially two party, Labor versus the Coalition. The only seats where preferences were important were three cornered contests. In 1949, 22 seats went to preferences, 14 won by the Coalition and 8 by Labor. The Coalition won eight seats where Labor led on the primary vote, the newly expanded Parliament seeing a large increase in three cornered contests. If you combine the vote for competing Coalition candidates, no results were reversed by the distribution of preferences.

Only six seats went to preferences at both the 1951 and 1954 election.

1955-1972

A major split occurred in the Labor Party in the mid 1950s. The immediate cause was a dispute over how to deal with the activities of Communists in the union movement and more broadly in society. However, there was another social history behind the split. Since the conscription debate in the First World War, Catholics had overwhelmingly voted Labor. By the mid-1950s, social and economic change had seen many middle class Catholics lose their traditional ties with the working class Labor Party. When Labor split, many Catholics ended up supporting the newly formed Democratic Labor Party (DLP). The DLP was the first minor party that actively campaigned not so much to win seats as to deliver preferences to one side or other of politics. Overwhelmingly, the DLP directed preferences to the Coalition under Robert Menzies. The Coalition in fact altered some of its policies to appeal to DLP supporters, even abandoning decades of past practice to direct Federal funds to Catholic and other faith-based schools.

Initially formed as the Anti-Communist Labor Party, the DLP contested some electorates in 1955 before expanding its activities at subsequent elections. Over the seven elections between 1955 and 1972, the Coalition won 54 seats after trailing on preferences to just one seat for Labor. Discounting three-cornered contests, the Coalition won 34 seats from behind on preferences over the seven elections in this period, most on DLP preferences, Labor winning only one such contest. The only Independent victory in the period, the election of disendorsed Labor MP Sam Benson in Batman in 1966, was also engineered by DLP preferences.

1974-1975

After the election of the Whitlam government, the DLP essentially withered away. Both the 1974 and 1975 elections saw a marked decline in the minor party vote, the number of seats going to preferences falling as a result.

1977-1987

A new political party arrived on the political scene before the 1977 election. The Australian Democrats were formed around former Liberal minister Don Chipp, a small-l Liberal who branched out into centre party politics after he was left out of Malcolm Fraser's cabinet in 1975. The new party attracted many traditional Coalition voters who had been inspired by the Whitlam Labor government's vision but felt unhappy with its economic credentials and close ties with the unions. The one uniting force behind the Australian Democrats was that no government should again be destroyed by a hostile Senate, the issue that had brought the Whitlam government to a spectacular end. The Democrats have never had anything as coherent as a philosophy or ideology, but their one great promise was never to be part of bringing down a government by blocking supply in the Senate. The Democrats become a comfortable half-way house for voters unsure which side of politics to back. They eschewed the preference tactics of the DLP, instead issuing split how-to-vote cards, leaving voters to make up their own minds on preferences.

As a result, while the number of seats decided on preferences again rose between 1977 and 1987, the number of seats where the result was changed by preferences declined. Over the five elections in this period, the Coalition won 126 seats on preferences to Labor's 88. The Coalition won 26 seats after trailing on preferences, mostly in three cornered contests, to just three for Labor. However, combining the Coalition vote, the Coalition won only 2 seats in this period after trailing on the primary vote, while Labor won 11 seats.

Six of those Labor victories occurred in 1987, and election conducted after the collapse of the Coalition agreement, the Liberal and National Parties actively competing against each other in several states. Labor won six seats in 1987 on leakage of preferences between Liberal and National Party candidates, four of these contests being seats Labor gained from the Coalition in Queensland.

1990-2001

The 1990 Federal election was the first at which the minor party vote exceeded 13%, a figure that was also passed in 1996, 1998 and 2001. The average number of candidates per seat rose from four in the 1980s to more than six, and two new parties arrived on the political scene, the Greens and Pauline Hanson's One Nation. The number of seats decided on preferences increased as a result, to 91 in 1990, 98 in 1998 and 87 in 2001.

After the 1987 debacle, the number of three-cornered contests declined with unity re-imposed in the Coalition. However, the growing vote for minor parties increased the number of seats decided on preferences. At the five elections between 1990 and 2001, the Coalition won 203 seats on preferences to Labor's 191, with 10 Independents also elected on preferences. The Coalition won 18 seats where its candidate trailed on the primary vote compared to 21 seats for Labor and four Independents.

The more important statistic however was the number of seats Labor won from behind on preferences. Discounting the three cornered contests, the Coalition won only 3 seats over 5 elections where it trailed on the primary vote. By comparison, Labor won a full 30 such contests.

2004-2007

The Australian Democrats disintegrated between 2001 and 2004, leaving the Greens as the most significant minor party at the 2004 and 2007 elections. Unlike the Australian Democrats, the Greens have a more solid base of support and a clearer position on the idealogical spectrum. On most issues the Greens lie to the left of the Labor Party and compete with Labor for a demographic of supporters that can generally be described as younger, better educated, more affluent and also more likely to be living in the inner suburbs of Australia's larger capital cities. The Greens appear to have less appeal to traditional working class voters, older voters, voters from ethnic backgrounds, and voters in regional areas and in the outer suburbs of the capital cities.

The Greens have eschewed the Democrat's tactic of issuing double sided tickets. The Greens do not direct preferences to the Coalition and almost always direct preferences to Labor. Even on the odd occasions where the Greens issue open preference tickets, the overwhelming majority of Green preferences flow to Labor. Green preferences almost always flow more than 70% to Labor, and the higher the Green vote, the stronger the flow to Labor.

At the two elections in this period, Green preferences have tilted the pattern of seats decided on preferences even further to Labor's advantage. With the Greens taking votes overwhelmingly from Labor, Labor's primary vote in seats it wins has declined, causing more Labor seats to be decided on preferences. It has also increased the number of seats where Labor has won on Green preferences after trailing on first preference votes.

At the 2004 election, the Coalition won 63 seats on first preferences and 24 after preference distributions, compared to only 24 first preference victories for Labor and 36 seats won after preference distributions. Even when the Labor Party won office at the 2007 election, it still only won 41 seats on first preferences to 42 after distributions, while the Coalition won 33 on first preferences and 31 after distributions.

The change is even more apparent when looking only at seats where the result after the distribution of preferences differed from the leading candidate on first preferences. At the 2004 election, Labor won eight seats after trailing on first preferences, a ninth after trailing the combined Coalition first preference count. At the 2007 election, Labor won nine seats after trailing, and two more after trailing the combined Coalition first preference vote.

Conclusion

In the 1950s and 1960s, it was the Labor Party that complained it was disadvantaged by preferential voting. The tactics of the DLP to direct preferences to the Coalition paid off handsomely in delivering seats that would have been won by Labor under simple majority voting, to the Coalition by the operation of preferential voting. Between 1955 and 1972, Labor came from behind to win on preferences in only one seat compared to 34 seats for the Coalition.

That situation has completely reversed in the last three decades. Since 1980, the Coalition has won only 5 seats where it's combined vote trailed Labor, while in the same period Labor has won 61 seats after trailing the combined Coalition vote on first preferences.

It is remarkable given the political commentary devoted to preferential voting in the 1950s and 1960s, how little attention has been paid to this fundemental shift in how preferential voting has interacted with Australian party politics.

The Rudd Labor government was elected at the 2007 election with 83 seats. Had the election been conducted under simple majority voting, Labor had only 72 seats where it had a plurality of votes over the Coalition. The 2007 election joins 1990, 1961 and 1969, as examples of preferential voting electing a government that could have fallen short of a majority under simple majority voting.